ONR Study of Air–Sea Fluxes and Atmospheric River Intensity (SAFARI). PI: Hyodae Seo

The SAFARI DRI aims to improve the physical and predictive understanding of the role of air-sea fluxes and their interactions with turbulent boundary layer processes to accurately simulate and predict atmospheric river (AR) intensity and downstream impacts. Since the air-sea turbulent momentum and heat exchange processes are entirely parameterized in numerical models, an accurate representation of these coupled interactions and their diabatic effects in the lower troposphere is critical for improved predictive capabilities of ARs in operational models. Our project will validate and refine the parameterizations for air-sea fluxes mediated by surface waves and anomalous ocean conditions throughout the ARs’ lifecycle and improve the understanding and representation of the interaction with turbulent boundary layer processes in simulation and prediction models.

NASA Modeling, Analysis, and Prediction (MAP): Seo, Clayson (WHOI)

This project will develop a better understanding of the physical processes governing the structure and evolution of the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) in the Northeastern US and the New England shelf regions. Capitalizing on the detailed in situ and remotely sensed observations of coupled boundary layer variables and air-sea fluxes uniquely available in the region, this project will validate and improve the MABL processes in the NASA’s Unified WRF (NU-WRF) modeling system to better represent and forecast extreme coastal storms. By including the full coupling of the regional ocean modeling system (ROMS) and the WaveWatchIII (WW3) to the NU-WRF to exploit the critical wave-ocean coupling effect on the atmosphere, the project will also enable, for the first time, NU-WRF-based coupled hindcast and forecast capabilities of extreme weather events with reduced uncertainty.

U.S. Department of Energy Wind Forecast Improvement Project III (WFIP-3). Lead PI: Anthony Kirincich (WHOI); co-PI: Hyodae Seo.

This is a comprehensive observational and modeling study of the coupled atmospheric and oceanic boundary layers that will dramatically improve offshore windresource measurement and modeling science. Focusing on physical processes relevant to all U.S. offshore wind energy areas via observations of the Northeast U.S. outer continental shelf, this effort will increase our understanding of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system in wind energy areas as well as improve our ability to reliably predict boundary layer winds and properties critical for industry-specific resource assessment, load analyses, and design criteria.

The Northeast shelf is home to five major offshore wind energy lease areas, including areas likely to be active and in construction during the field campaign, in addition to numerous ongoing scientific monitoring efforts. This study will combine the observational efforts of a diverse, experienced group of research and industry partners with an expert modeling team to improve wind resource forecasting abilities in an area with challenging offshore meteorological and oceanic conditions.

NOAA Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP) Tropical Pacific Observing System (TPOS) Pre-field Modeling: Seo, Wijffels (WHOI)

The goal of the TPOS2020 project is to design an efficient and effective backbone observing system to better understand the processes in the tropical Pacific that are instrumental to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and provide useful observational constraints for predictions. The process studies being planned in the western and eastern equatorial Pacific are intended to shed light on physical processes and guide the design and development of the TPOS.

Office of Naval Research Arabian Sea Transition Layer (ASTraL) DRI, Exchange Across the Air–Sea Interface. PI: Hyodae Seo.

ASTraL will improve in situ characterization of air-sea exchanges of heat, mass, and momentum, including amplitudes and space-time variability, and provide useful and practical observational constraints for prediction models across scales. Since air-sea fluxes and their interactions with turbulent boundary layers in the ocean and atmosphere are entirely parameterized in prediction models, accurate representation of these coupled interactions is critical for improved predictive capabilities in Earth System modeling. We propose a model-data synthesis project that will validate, refine, and re-engineer (if necessary) the parameterizations for air-sea fluxes mediated by surface waves and their interaction with turbulent boundary layer processes in the Arabian Sea. The focus is on the spring-to-summer transition season, where the Arabian Sea exhibits peculiar sea states dominated by swell and mixed seas, whose effects on air-sea fluxes remain poorly captured even in the most advanced bulk flux algorithms. Subsequent impacts on the formation and collapse of the mini-warm pool and the onset of the summer monsoons in simulation and forecast models must be quantified.

The project will improve our understanding of the ocean and surface wave processes controlling the air-sea fluxes and the structure and evolution of the marine atmospheric boundary layer in the US Northeast Coast. A crucial element of the project is detailed validations of high-resolution fully-coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave model simulations against in situ and remotely sensed observations of coupled boundary layer variables and directly measured air-sea fluxes uniquely available in the region. The project will refine and correctly incorporate the latest Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (COARE) bulk flux algorithm in the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) atmospheric model. The research team will then undertake comprehensive modeling and validation efforts of the planetary boundary layer and surface-layer processes under various atmosphere conditions, including extreme extratropical cyclones and stable boundary layers. Through extensive sensitivity experiments and climate-scale simulations to quantify the impacts of the Gulf Stream current, sea surface temperature fronts and eddies, surface waves, and tides, the project will determine the critical roles of the oceans, surface waves, and air-sea interaction in shaping regional weather and climate.